Among my political contacts on the Democrat’s side of the aisle, I have noticed a lot of talk about the fact that a few days ago, Sarah Palin’s Facebook page passed one million friends. As a political advisor, I know that politicians only talk about something to a high degree if it encourages them, or scares them. What is it, then, that scares the Democrats so much about Sarah Palin’s one million Facebook friends?
Think about Sarah Palin’s one million Facebook friends as potential voters if she decides to throw her hat into the presidential race in 2012. I know that many of you might state that there is probably a high number of the Facebook friends that are not voting age, but many more will be by 2012. Plus, the number of Sarah Palin’s Facebook friends grows every single day. So, we are sticking with the one million voters right now.
One million supporters three years before an election is a major number. In fact, by political standards, one million voters who have declared you as their candidate within the first week of a person throwing their hat into the race is considered to be significant. Without going in to all of the math her, just figure that there is an expected rate of increase as the months go on during an election season. Declared voters for a candidate are usually expected to increase to at least 45 times the original amount that declared the candidate.
So, what does this mean in English? If we base Sarah Palin’s initial constituency on the one million Facebook friends, we can estimate that if the election season were to start now, by the time the election came, she should have at least 45 million votes. It is true that President Obama won the 2008 Election with over 69 million votes, but it is still early. There is still a lot of time for more supporters to follow Sarah Palin.
As I state in my article that takes a look at the affect of Sarah Palin’s Facebook page (you can read that here), you can access a donation site for her PAC. If she is already raising money for a 2012 presidential run, chances are good that she is going to blow every other candidate in recent history out of the water with contributions. Instead of only having a year to a year and a half to raise funds, she now has at least three years to raise funds.
Now that I have explained all of this, do you understand why my contacts that are Democrats are shaking in their boots? Sarah Palin’s Facebook page has the opportunity of making her one of the strongest candidates that we have ever seen in any portion of the political arena. Today, we are talking about Sarah Palin’s one million Facebook friends. Next year, we might be talking about ten million. Where can she go from there?